White papers and sources
No Salvage Value: Why Software Credit Recovers Differently
When a software loan turns, there is no collateral to liquidate toward: enterprise value is recurring revenue carried on the confidence of the customers who renew and the engineers who stay, and it recovers, or does not, on decisions made before any process starts. The paper walks the problem end to end from the lender’s seat: a market that stopped clearing, the compounding cost of delay, the one-exit problem, the process launched unprepared and the broken-process discount that follows, and what changes when the recovery is underwritten first, the way the loan was.
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The Recovery Imperative in Private Credit
Why higher-for-longer rates and AI broke the SaaS credit model, and where recovery is won. A board-level paper for managing partners and CEOs of US sponsor-backed direct lenders: the four pillars that made SaaS the ideal private credit borrower and how each broke, the three gaps that leave recovery on the table, the case evidence, and the capabilities that decide the outcome, built, or bought in stages.
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Every figure, with its source
Figures are as reported at the dates shown; none has been independently verified by Alary Capital, and each is subject to the original publisher’s terms.
- 33,575 unsold companies
- Unsold sponsor-backed companies worldwide as of June 30, 2026, per PitchBook, as reported by The New York Times, August 10, 2026. Prior readings: 32,451 at year-end 2025; 15,923 a decade earlier.
- 13,509 ยท 8+ years
- US sponsor-owned companies at mid-year 2026, per PitchBook’s Q2 2026 US PE Breakdown; “more than eight years of inventory” is PitchBook’s own arithmetic against the recent US clearing rate.
- ≈1,500 clearing a year
- US sponsor-backed sales at the recent annual rate (1,619 exits in 2025), per PitchBook exit data.
- 70 vs 424 IPOs
- Sponsor-backed US listings since 2022, against 2017–2021, per Dealogic, as reported by The New York Times, August 10, 2026.
- 6.4% vs 15.2%
- US private equity annualized return from July 1, 2022 to March 31, 2026, per MSCI, against the S&P 500 over the same period, as reported by The New York Times, August 10, 2026.
- Software in credit books
- Software as roughly a quarter of direct-lending portfolios and 20% or more of loans in many funds; nonaccruals at five-year highs and watchlists the longest since 2022–23, in aggregate across large business development companies, per The Wall Street Journal, August 9, 2026.
Figures are re-verified quarterly and carried here as of August 2026.