Insights

White papers and sources

Two papers for the lender’s seat, and the source behind every figure on this site.

White paper · September 2026

No Salvage Value: Why Software Credit Recovers Differently

When a software loan turns there is no collateral to liquidate. Enterprise value is recurring revenue carried on confidence, and confidence does not sit still while a workout runs. The paper evaluates what that changes for a lender: why the software cohort financed at the 2021 peak is the hardest inventory in private credit, why its exit is not simply late, and what has to be underwritten before a process starts.

Read the white paper

Prefer a PDF copy? Request it by email.

White paper · June 2026 · Updated August 2026

The Recovery Imperative in Private Credit

Why higher-for-longer rates and AI broke the SaaS credit model, and where recovery is won. A board-level paper for managing partners and CEOs of US sponsor-backed direct lenders: the four pillars that made SaaS the ideal private credit borrower and how each broke, the three gaps that leave recovery on the table, the case evidence, and the capabilities that decide the outcome, built, or bought in stages.

Read the white paper

Prefer a PDF copy? Request it by email.

Sources

Every figure, with its source

Figures are as reported at the dates shown; none has been independently verified by Alary Capital, and each is subject to the original publisher’s terms.

33,575 unsold companies
Unsold sponsor-backed companies worldwide as of June 30, 2026, per PitchBook, as reported by The New York Times, August 10, 2026. Prior readings: 32,451 at year-end 2025; 15,923 a decade earlier.
13,509 US companies
Unsold US sponsor-owned companies at mid-year 2026, per PitchBook’s Q2 2026 US PE Breakdown. Against the 2025 exit count this is more than eight years of inventory, PitchBook’s own arithmetic.
1,619 sold in a year
US sponsor-backed exits in 2025, per PitchBook exit data.
70 vs 424 IPOs
Sponsor-backed US listings since 2022, against 2017–2021, per Dealogic, as reported by The New York Times, August 10, 2026.
46% vs 12%
Industry shares of 2025 US private credit issuance: technology 16%, business services 17%, healthcare 13%, consumer discretionary 13% and industrials 12%, per Banegas, Castelo, Degerli, Dobridge and Kennedy, “Private Credit and Leveraged Loan Markets: Similarities, Differences, and Substitution,” FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 11, 2026, Table 1. The 46% is the sum of the technology, business services and healthcare shares. The Federal Reserve discloses only these five industries, so the remaining 29% is an undisclosed residual and is shown as such; software borrowers may be grouped in their industry of specialty rather than in Technology.
18x to 3x revenue
Median public SaaS enterprise value to trailing revenue, roughly 18x to 19x at the 2021 peak against 3.2x at mid-2026, per Software Equity Group, 2Q 2026 SaaS M&A and Public Market Report, August 2026, and Aventis Advisors, “SaaS Valuation Multiples: 2015–2026,” updated August 2026.
92% intangible
Intangible assets as a share of S&P 500 market capitalization in 2025, per Ocean Tomo’s 2025 Intangible Asset Market Value Study, published February 12, 2026. Prior readings from the same study: 17% in 1975, 32% in 1985, 79% in 2005.
7% to 27% of investment
Intangible investment as a share of total US investment, about 7% in the 1950s against about 27% by 2019, with total investment steady at about a quarter of GDP, per David and Gourio, Chicago Fed Letter No. 482, August 2023.
70–80% and 20–65%
Typical asset-based lending advance rates against eligible accounts receivable and eligible inventory, per the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Comptroller’s Handbook, Accounts Receivable and Inventory Financing, updated March 20, 2025.
32% to almost 90% cov-lite
Covenant-lite facilities as a share of the US leveraged loan index, 2013 against year-end 2023, and the quoted description of the shift out of traditional industrial sectors, per IOSCO, Leveraged Loans and CLOs: Good Practices for Consideration, FR03/2024, June 2024.
Software in credit books
Software as roughly a quarter of direct-lending portfolios and 20% or more of loans in many funds; nonaccruals at five-year highs and watchlists the longest since 2022–23, in aggregate across large business development companies, per The Wall Street Journal, August 9, 2026.

Figures are re-verified quarterly and carried here as of September 2026.